Scripting is just One Explanation on FIFA 17

11/ago/2016 07:49:45 supodum Contatta l'autore

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It’s beyond dispute that FIFA can be a deeply frustrating experience. Sometimes, it doesn’t feel as if you are in the driver’s seat. Equalizers being scored in the 90th minute, opponents being able to catch up with a safe lead and losing streaks are just some examples of the long list of pains that FIFA players have to endure. In the community, there has been a long lasting consensus regarding the presence of some kind of foul play labelled under terms such as scripting, handicapping and momentum. If you need cheap fifa coins, just click.


People who believe that the game is rigged generally reject the mere thought that there could be other explanations than foul play to the events mentioned above, some of which are portrayed in a myriad of Youtube videos and written accounts on these topics. Yet, in this article, I’m going to present alternative explanations:


1. Relegation and losing streaks


2. 90th minute goals


3. Too-good-to-be-true come backs


Relegation and losing streaks


The first topic, I’m going to deal with, is actually two different phenomena, which however are linked and perhaps therefore sometimes confused, namely losing streaks and relegation streaks.


Losing streaks are streaks of (more or less) consecutive losses, whereas relegation streaks are streaks of (more or less) consecutive relegations. You may suffer losing streaks without getting relegated and you may get relegated without having been on an actual losing streak. Aside from the fact that results really aren’t going your way over a longer span of matches, losing streaks and relegation streaks are different phenomena, and the explanations, I’m going to present, are hence also different.


In addition to that, I’m aware that people may use the term "streak" even if the losses or relegations in fact aren’t happening in direct succession but perhaps just in close succession. The explanations, I’m going to present below, are however relevant to both the narrow and the wider use of the term "streak".


90th minute goals


All FIFA players know those painfully annoying goals in the dying minutes of the match, which turn a well deserved win into a draw or a draw into a defeat. When something as frustrating as this happens as frequently as it definitely does, it’s easy to start thinking that they are put in on purpose to change the outcome of the match. As I however will illustrate below, there is another and far more likely explanation.


Longer minutes, more goals


The term "90th minute" does not actually refer to one minute. In fact, "the 90th minute" refers to the part of the match where the clock is stopped at 90:00 aka stoppage time or injury time. Stoppage time usually lasts way more than one minute in FIFA. It’s not uncommon to see 5 minutes or more added to the second half. When considering that these 5 minutes were added because of stoppages during the 45 minutes played during the second half, we end up having 1/9 of the effective playing time of the 2nd half taking place during "the 90 minute".


All other things equal, we should expect 1/9 of the goals to be scored during the 1/9 of the playing time that constitute stoppage time. All other things are however not quite equal. In real football, the scoring frequency increases towards the end of the match. Although FUT is different in many ways, some of the factors which lead to more goals in the dying minutes of a real match, are present here as well. This includes nerves and hence more mistakes, tactical changes and of course fatigue.


Many goals in general, many goals in stoppage time


Simple math is however not the only contributor to goals being scored in "the 90th minute". Another key factor is FUT’s overall goal frequency. While an average football match in one of the five European top leagues contains approximately 2.7 goals, a FUT seasons match contains around to 3.8 goals depending of what edition of the game you are looking at. Needless to say, a general increase in the goal frequency will lead to a general increase in the frequency of goals scored in stoppage time as well.


Estimates show that the factors listed above on their own should lead to stoppage time goals in approximately every other match. Hence, I find it fair to conclude that the vast majority of the 90th minute goals happen due to the simple fact that the 90th minute isn’t one minute and that FIFA’s overall goal frequency is very high compared to real football. Whether you then chose to believe that there is a residual of 90th minute goals, which are being scripted in on purpose, is up to you.

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